Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 19.875555 21.541196 23.335153 25.420193 27.788623 30.409259 33.547643
2025-09-14 17.200681 19.478044 22.097419 25.369270 29.399074 34.271803 40.723973
2025-09-21 15.198994 17.791020 20.927020 25.077028 30.546727 37.697563 48.096841
2025-09-28 14.245757 17.175362 20.886200 26.070306 33.369771 43.704943 60.340611
2025-10-05 13.084045 16.125708 20.114310 25.926117 34.556273 47.621341 70.634189
2025-10-12 12.172680 15.285392 19.490427 25.848718 35.755829 51.727235 82.483462
2025-10-19 11.545003 14.751463 19.206033 26.185556 37.589759 57.196594 98.770592
2025-10-26 10.875714 14.090656 18.658895 26.028859 38.562784 61.355139 114.156738
2025-11-02 10.262375 13.454253 18.078382 25.731200 39.218737 65.041882 130.201429
2025-11-09 9.795539 12.990929 17.708813 25.717384 40.352262 69.922720 151.893958
2025-11-16 9.324934 12.486267 17.228889 25.455336 40.968477 73.858963 173.469074
2025-11-23 8.917283 12.047664 16.814430 25.253745 41.657808 78.133992 199.271550
2025-11-30 8.529425 11.622095 16.399113 25.025792 42.301561 82.611100 230.315655
2025-12-07 8.190738 11.252784 16.048560 24.879462 43.099348 87.767777 269.946964
2025-12-14 7.846226 10.854710 15.622458 24.549817 43.453871 91.898170 310.629632
2025-12-21 7.757627 10.854339 15.857542 25.489317 46.801955 105.818649 429.123887
2025-12-28 7.488562 10.548368 15.549115 25.338709 47.595002 112.346518 518.466645
2026-01-04 7.251338 10.281414 15.289815 25.258539 48.548275 119.862874 640.509717
2026-01-11 7.093605 10.136041 15.232788 25.581574 50.577262 132.214185 868.967718
2026-01-18 6.875546 9.879406 14.960556 25.428868 51.345124 140.273173 1102.281151
2026-01-25 6.652468 9.604187 14.638504 25.140550 51.703841 146.954414 1378.827411
2026-02-01 6.481696 9.409571 14.451832 25.126909 52.831027 157.709853 1894.938675
2026-02-08 6.289035 9.169399 14.167612 24.873438 53.234180 165.491485 2510.222706